in February 2004 Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall wrote an article about abrupt climate change, a scenario (just the last one of a long ‘saga’ starting with the Club of Rome in 1972 and involving also Olduvai Theory) which sees the western world security challenged by its own faults. The danger related to climate change is even higher than Al Qaeda challenge (providing that Al Qaeda exists). So those days, whatever seems bad is measured by the ‘Al Quaeda index’. Bush is just a bit better than Bin Laden, climate change a bit worse… let’s say that Al Qaeda is neutral thus!
“It is quite plausible that within a decade the evidence of an imminent abrupt climate shift may become clear and reliable. It is also possible that our models will better enable us to predict the consequences. In that event the United States will need to take urgent action to prevent and mitigate some of the most significant impacts.
Diplomatic action will be needed to minimize the likelihood of conflict in the most impacted areas, especially in the Caribbean and Asia. However, large population movements in this scenario are inevitable. Learning how to manage those populations, border tensions that arise and the resulting refugees will be critical.
New forms of security agreements dealing specifically with energy, food and water will also be needed. In short, while the US itself will be relatively better off and with more adaptive capacity, it will find itself in a world where Europe will be struggling internally, large number so refugees washing up on its shores and Asia in serious crisis over food and water. Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of life”. (Download original PDF)
What about the Kyoto Protocol?